Hannah and Ashley, good talking through where measurement is falling short for Thermacell today. Last click can't show you what your Meta spend is really doing for Amazon, and your annual MMM is too slow to guide the calls you're making week to week.
This page covers how Fospha measures that Amazon halo, what the model can and can't see today, two brands that worked through a similar problem, and what's next.
Three things worth taking from this
- 1You put it well on the call: "How do you understand the true commercial impact and the actual business results that are driven by a dollar spent on an awareness campaign, even through to conversion?" That's the gap between your last-click view and what your PR, affiliate, and paid social spend is actually doing.
- 2Amazon is your biggest channel and Meta is your main lever, but today you only see the clicks you send to Amazon, not what actually lands there.
- 3Your annual MMM is the lighthouse, the strategic view once a year. Fospha runs that same kind of model daily, so you have a read to act on between those check-ins.
Proving Meta's pull on Amazon
Amazon and your national retail partners carry most of Thermacell's revenue, and Meta is where most of your trackable spend sits. Right now you only see the clicks you send to Amazon, not the sales that spend actually drives once someone gets there.
- Fospha connects to Amazon by API and reads how your paid social and other digital spend is moving Amazon sales, not just the clicks you send there today.
- You see that halo at channel and campaign level, so a Meta campaign that looks flat by last click can show its real pull on Amazon.
- Target and Walmart retail media measurement is in build and expected in the next few months, extending the same view across your other big retail partners.
- Because Fospha runs on your first-party data instead of a pixel, day one shows around two years of modeled history instead of a slow build from zero.
What the model can see
You asked directly whether the model reaches beyond digital into things like PR and earned media. Here's a straight answer on what's in scope today.
- Affiliate and influencer activity is modeled today, including anything running on unique codes, credited alongside your paid channels.
- CTV is already in scope as you look to move spend into new upper-funnel channels.
- PR, guerrilla marketing, and other experiential activity sit outside the model right now. Will will check with the product team on the roadmap here and follow up.
- The output is a single daily number your marketing and finance teams can both look at, instead of three tools telling three different stories.
The model, explained simply
Fospha runs a daily marketing mix model instead of a quarterly or annual one. It connects to your ad platforms, Shopify, and Amazon by API, so you get a read that updates every day rather than waiting a year for the next MMM refresh.
Scope, speed, or science — you shouldn't have to pick
Most measurement tools force a tradeoff. MTA gives you speed and granularity but misses upper funnel and Amazon. Incrementality testing gives you causal proof but only in the moment. Quarterly MMM gives you strategic scope but can't drive a weekly budget decision. Fospha is built to stop making that tradeoff.
| Tool | Good for | Not built for |
|---|---|---|
| MTA e.g. NorthBeam, Triple Whale |
Ad-level creative testing, fast intraday signals | Cross-channel budget decisions, upper funnel, Amazon halo |
| Incrementality e.g. Measured |
Proving true lift for a specific channel or test | Always-on decisions — tests go stale fast, you can't run them every day |
| Annual / Quarterly MMM e.g. agency models |
Long-term strategic planning, offline + online mix | Weekly budget decisions — too slow and too coarse for day-to-day |
| Fospha | Daily MMM + ad-level granularity + halo measurement | Replacing your CRM, creative testing tools, or incrementality tests |
Your annual MMM is the lighthouse, the long-range strategic view. Fospha is the spotlight, the daily read that tells you where to actually shift budget between those check-ins.
Brands seeing the same results
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Last click was undercrediting Meta and TikTok at CarParts.com, making it hard to justify scaling either channel. Fospha's daily model showed paid social was driving 24% of revenue on just 8% of spend, a 3.2x efficiency ratio last click had been hiding. Meta revenue grew 83% YoY once they had the confidence to scale it.
Nécessaire couldn't see how Meta and TikTok were driving Amazon sales, so both channels looked like they were missing target. Fospha's Halo showed Meta's true ROAS was 87% higher once Amazon was counted, and TikTok's was twice as high. With that view, Nécessaire beat Prime Day revenue benchmarks by 47%.
Next steps
- Will sends a follow-up email covering the Target/Walmart and Amazon incrementality questions this week.
- Hannah and Ashley loop in Jen and the wider team to review internally.
- Schedule the broader capabilities call once Hannah's colleague returns from PTO, ideally before BFCM.
Platform walkthrough
Full walkthrough of the platform, reporting views, and daily workflow.
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